GameBooth — Operating System

Canonical source: model/ in the repo. Generated 2026-10-05 11:17 UTC. Aggregates and pseudonymous IDs only.

$1.52

contribution per review

1,768.48

coaches to break-even

no financing line

cumulative cash turns positive (18-mo horizon)

How this model changes

This page is generated — nothing on it is editable, and the retired Google Sheet is not the model anymore. Every number here derives from exactly one input surface: model/assumptions.yaml in the repo.

To change an assumption: edit assumptions.yaml → the regression tests in model/test_model.py run (13 fixtures pin the math itself; a wrong model that renders is worse than one that doesn't) → commit → CI re-renders and re-deploys this page. The change arrives with a diff, an author, and a timestamp — a model change is a code change, reviewable and revertable like any other.

Two kinds of values never need a hand edit: measured drivers overlay automatically from the weekly prod snapshot (ops/weekly/*.json) when their sample clears the n≥5 floor, and computed figures (everything not chip- tagged below) follow from the inputs. If a number on this page looks wrong, the fix is in the yaml or in model/model.py — never in this page.

Drivers & assumptions — the honesty column

Input	Value	Basis	Note
starting_active_coaches	1	✓ actual	Danny
coach_monthly_churn	0.00	◐ measured (n=5)
parents_invited_per_coach_per_month	0.20	◐ measured (n=5)
invite_to_first_purchase_conversion	0.35	● guess insufficient (n=1)
parent_monthly_retention	0.00	◐ measured (n=6)	Highest-leverage unknown. Enters as 1/(1-r).
reviews_per_active_parent_per_month	1.33	◐ measured (n=6)
price_per_review	15.00	◐ measured (n=8)	PLAN ticket, not a decree: $20 is the recommended list price for coaches onboarded from Sept 2026 (Danny + Derek grandfathered at $15) — the modeled average as the mix shifts. Decision: decisions/2026-08-20-season-one-plan.md, partially superseding 2026-08-19-price-per-review.md. The measured lens keeps showing the real average ($15.00, n=7, weekly overlay) until reality moves — plan vs measured divergence here is honest and intentional.
base_take_rate	0.20	◆ decision
premium_take_rate	0.28	◆ decision
free_reviews_per_coach_month	0	◆ decision	SET TO 0 2026-08-20 (season-one plan, decisions/2026-08-20-season-one-plan.md) — the allowance cost ~$9/coach/mo in waived take and was the single cheapest profitability lever. Danny + Derek conversation still owed; their reaction is a reversal condition.
matched_share	0.00	✓ actual	No platform_matched transactions exist yet. The projection uses the RAMP below instead — a plan, not an estimate (sheet Model row 22).
coach_reference_hourly_rate	120	▢ canvas
minutes_per_async_clip	5	▢ canvas
minutes_per_sync_session	60	▢ canvas
stripe_pct_of_gmv	0.03	▤ vendor
stripe_fixed_per_txn	0.30	▤ vendor
infra_cost_per_review	0.75	● guess
coach_onboarding_cost	40	● guess
fixed_monthly_costs	250	● guess
one_time_legal	6000	● guess	Founder-absorbed startup capital — excluded from the operating lines, visible on the card.
activity	[1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.7, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.4, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0]	● guess
ontario_aaa_players	3978	▢ canvas
ontario_rep_players	18414	▢ canvas
na_u14_18_players	292687	▢ canvas
na_supplemental_spend_tam	117848450	▢ canvas
na_platform_revenue_tam	3814765	▢ canvas
wallet_budget_aaa_annual	2000	▢ canvas
wallet_budget_a_annual	500	▢ canvas

Measured overlays this build:

reviews_per_active_parent_per_month: promoted to measured
parents_invited_per_coach_per_month: promoted to measured
invite_to_first_purchase_conversion: REFUSED — insufficient (n=1); assumption kept
parent_monthly_retention: promoted to measured
coach_monthly_churn: promoted to measured
price_per_review: promoted to measured

Changed since previous snapshot:

parents_invited_per_coach_per_month: 2.00 (n=3) → 0.20 (n=5) [2026-09-28 → 2026-10-05]
parent_monthly_retention: — (n=0) → 0.00 (n=6) [2026-09-28 → 2026-10-05]
coach_monthly_churn: 0.00 (n=3) → 0.00 (n=5) [2026-09-28 → 2026-10-05]

Sensitivity — plausible ranges (never ±% flexing)

Each bar answers: if this driver alone moved across its plausible range (everything else held at base), where does contribution per coach per month land? range of outcomes today's base case $0 — left of it, each coach LOSES the platform money

Invites / coach / month ◐ measured n=5 swing $7.78

at 4 → $2.83 · at base 0.2 → $0.14 · at 15 → $10.60

Half lever, half guess — onboarding prompts and invite tooling can move it, so it is partly under our control.

Parent monthly retention ◐ measured n=6 swing $0.69

at 45% → $0.26 · at base 0% → $0.14 · at 85% → $0.94

Convex: enters as 1/(1-r), so the upside compounds. The band is this wide because there is zero evidence — the widest-and-least-known driver on the board, and the only one whose improvement accelerates.

Price per review (USD) ◐ measured n=8 swing $0.32

at $10 → $0.06 · at base $15 → $0.14 · at $30 → $0.38

A decision, not a guess. Better than linear on contribution because Stripe's $0.30 fixed fee does not scale with price.

Reviews / active parent / month ◐ measured n=6 swing $0.27

at 1 → $0.11 · at base 1.333 → $0.14 · at 3.5 → $0.37

The frequency thesis of the whole business. Below ~1.5 the unit economics stop working at any scale.

Invite → first purchase ● guess swing $0.14

at 20% → $0.08 · at base 35% → $0.14 · at 55% → $0.22

Cheapest driver on the board to resolve — measurable on the first ten invites. (Early beta cohort: 0.667 on n=6, above this whole range.)

Base take rate ◆ decision swing $0.14

at 15% → $0.07 · at base 20% → $0.14 · at 25% → $0.21

A decision, and the LEAST consequential thing on this list. You could argue about take rate for a week and change the outcome by a fraction of what one honest retention measurement would.

Sorted by swing, descending — and the priority rule is the biggest swing that is also a ● guess: a decision can be argued in a meeting, a guess can only be resolved by measurement. Ranges are explicit plausible bounds in assumptions.yaml, never a ±% flex.

What-if — steady state, live

Sliders explore; they change nothing. A real change is a commit to assumptions.yaml. Held fixed while you slide:

free_reviews_per_coach_month 0 ◆ decisionstripe_pct_of_gmv 0.03 ▤ vendorstripe_fixed_per_txn 0.30 ▤ vendorinfra_cost_per_review 0.75 ● guessfixed_monthly_costs 250 ● guess

Driver trends — weekly snapshots

Reviews / active parent / month

Invites / coach / month

Invite → first purchase

Parent monthly retention

Coach monthly churn

Price per review (USD)

One small multiple per driver — different scales never share an axis. Series are sparse: the weekly export began 2026-08-18.

18-month projection

Every column below is COMPUTED from these assumptions (hover a chip for its note; change any of them via assumptions.yaml, never here):

parent_monthly_retention 0.00 ◐ measured n=6parents_invited_per_coach_per_month 0.20 ◐ measured n=5invite_to_first_purchase_conversion 0.35 ● guessreviews_per_active_parent_per_month 1.33 ◐ measured n=6coach_monthly_churn 0.00 ◐ measured n=5price_per_review 15.00 ◐ measured n=8base_take_rate 0.20 ◆ decisionpremium_take_rate 0.28 ◆ decisionfree_reviews_per_coach_month 0 ◆ decisionstripe_pct_of_gmv 0.03 ▤ vendorstripe_fixed_per_txn 0.30 ▤ vendorinfra_cost_per_review 0.75 ● guessfixed_monthly_costs 250 ● guesscoach_onboarding_cost 40 ● guess

Plus two plans (decisions, not estimates — projection: in the yaml): coaches added per month (shown as +n in the Coaches column) and the platform-matched share ramp (0 → 18% from month 10, which is what lifts the blended take rate late in the table).

CONVENTION: reviews are driven off ending parents — optimistic in a growing book. Cumulative cash from a zero starting balance.

Pessimistic — every unknown at its plausible low

−$5,081.22

cash at M18 · cash-positive: never

Measured today

−$5,544.18

cash at M18 · cash-positive: never

Optimistic — every unknown at its plausible high

$34,565.30

cash at M18 · cash-positive: M3

uncertainty band (the four unknown drivers — retention, invites, frequency, conversion — ALL at their plausible lows or highs simultaneously; a compound floor and ceiling, not forecasts) · measured today · plan (yaml values, no measured overlay) · price and take rate are decisions, held identical in every scenario.

Measured vs. plan vs. needed

Driver	Measured today	Plan	Needed
Parent monthly retention	0.0% (measured n=6)	70.0%	64.8%
Invites / coach / month	0.20 (measured n=5)	8.00	7.19
Reviews / active parent / month	1.33 (measured n=6)	2.00	1.80
Invite → first purchase	35.0% (guess)	35.0%	31.4%
Cash at month 18	−$5,544.18	$630.79	target: ≥ $0
Cash-positive month	never	M17	target: by M18

"Needed" = the value of that ONE driver that turns cash positive by M18 holding every other driver at plan. Measured values carry their current sample-size and seasonality limits — check each driver's basis badge before treating a red line as fate.

⚑ Startup capital — founder-absorbed and excluded from every line above, kept visible on purpose: $6,000.00 one time legal. Reclassified 2026-08-20; Alex (CFO) can reverse — see decisions/2026-08-20-startup-capital-excluded-from-operating-model.md.

Month-by-month detail — measured today

Mo	Season	Coaches	Parents	Reviews	Billable	Revenue	Absorbed	Fixed	Onboard	Net	Cash
1 Sep	×1	4.00 +3	0.28	0.37	0.37	$1.12	$0.55	$250.00	$120.00	−$369.43	−$369.43
2 Oct	×1	7.00 +3	0.49	0.65	0.65	$1.96	$0.97	$250.00	$120.00	−$369.01	−$738.44
3 Nov	×1	9.00 +2	0.63	0.84	0.84	$2.52	$1.25	$250.00	$80.00	−$328.73	−$1,067.17
4 Dec	×1	11.00 +2	0.77	1.03	1.03	$3.08	$1.52	$250.00	$80.00	−$328.44	−$1,395.62
5 Jan	×1	13.00 +2	0.91	1.21	1.21	$3.64	$1.80	$250.00	$80.00	−$328.16	−$1,723.78
6 Feb	×1	14.00 +1	0.98	1.31	1.31	$3.92	$1.94	$250.00	$40.00	−$288.02	−$2,011.80
7 Mar	×1	15.00 +1	1.05	1.40	1.40	$4.20	$2.08	$250.00	$40.00	−$287.88	−$2,299.68
8 Apr	×0.7	15.00	0.73	0.69	0.69	$2.06	$1.02	$250.00	—	−$248.96	−$2,548.64
9 May	×0.4	15.00	0.42	0.22	0.22	$0.67	$0.33	$250.00	—	−$249.66	−$2,798.30
10 Jun	×0.3	15.00	0.31	0.13	0.13	$0.38	$0.19	$250.00	—	−$249.81	−$3,048.11
11 Jul	×0.3	15.00	0.31	0.13	0.13	$0.38	$0.19	$250.00	—	−$249.80	−$3,297.91
12 Aug	×0.4	18.00 +3	0.50	0.27	0.27	$0.82	$0.40	$250.00	$120.00	−$369.57	−$3,667.49
13 Sep	×1	21.00 +3	1.47	1.96	1.96	$6.05	$2.91	$250.00	$120.00	−$366.85	−$4,034.34
14 Oct	×1	23.00 +2	1.61	2.15	2.15	$6.68	$3.19	$250.00	$80.00	−$326.51	−$4,360.85
15 Nov	×1	25.00 +2	1.75	2.33	2.33	$7.31	$3.46	$250.00	$80.00	−$326.15	−$4,687.00
16 Dec	×1	26.00 +1	1.82	2.43	2.43	$7.66	$3.60	$250.00	$40.00	−$285.94	−$4,972.94
17 Jan	×1	27.00 +1	1.89	2.52	2.52	$8.01	$3.74	$250.00	$40.00	−$285.73	−$5,258.67
18 Feb	×1	28.00 +1	1.96	2.61	2.61	$8.37	$3.88	$250.00	$40.00	−$285.51	−$5,544.18

Market & penetration

NA supplemental-coaching spend (U14-18 hockey)

$118M / yr

assumed per-tier budgets — canvas-grade

Platform take-rate ceiling, hockey vertical

$3.81M ARR

20% take · assumed velocities · before down-tier/US/soccer expansion

The Ontario wedge

3,978 AAA

inside a 18,414-player rep pool (AAA+AA+A, U14-18)

	Parents	vs. AAA wedge	vs. rep pool
Break-even book — at plan drivers	53 parents	1.3% of Ontario AAA	0.3% of the Ontario rep pool
Break-even book — at measured today	124 parents	3.1% of Ontario AAA	0.7% of the Ontario rep pool
Projection at M18	2 parents	0.0% of Ontario AAA	0.0% of the Ontario rep pool

Wallet sanity: the plan asks an active parent for $364.00/year (frequency × price × season) — against assumed family budgets of $500.00 (A-tier) to $2,000.00 (AAA) for supplemental coaching.

Market numbers are canvas-grade — registration counts are sourced (USA Hockey / Hockey Canada), but the dollar TAMs inherit ASSUMED per-tier budgets and velocities. Canonical source + caveats: strategy/market-analysis.md.

Unit economics — per review

price_per_review 15.00 ◐ measured n=8base_take_rate 0.20 ◆ decisionstripe_pct_of_gmv 0.03 ▤ vendorstripe_fixed_per_txn 0.30 ▤ vendorinfra_cost_per_review 0.75 ● guess

The free allowance is NOT free to the platform: allowance reviews earn zero take but still incur the Stripe + infra legs above. Coach pitch: async net $144.00/effective-hour = 1.20× sync net; throughput 12.00× — publish the net multiple only.

Raise gates

Gate	Threshold	Base case	Status
active_coaches	5	5	✓ passing
coaches_retained_90d	3	—	◌ no data yet
total_paying_parents	50	—	◌ no data yet
reviews_per_active_parent_per_month	2.50	1.33	✗ BASE CASE FAILS
month3_parent_retention	0.40	—	◌ no data yet
monthly_gmv	3000	—	◌ no data yet
platform_matched_transactions	1	0	✗ BASE CASE FAILS
consecutive_months_positive_contribution	2	—	◌ no data yet
legal_posture_counsel_signoff	1	—	◌ no data yet

Open issues snapshot as of 2026-10-05 11:17 UTC — the tracker itself (GitHub Issues) is canonical; this tab is a render. P0 = blocks the beta · P1 = before break-even · P2 = before raise · P3 = someday.

Track	P0	P1	P2	P3	Total
driver	—	15	25	5	45
obligation	5	8	7	—	20
table-stakes	—	20	37	22	79

Drivers with open work: coach-churn, conversion, frequency, infra-cost, invites, matched-premium, price, retention. Every driver has open work.

P0 — 5 open

#	Title	Labels	Milestone
#103	Coach agreement	obligation · coach · needs-counsel	M1 First Cohort
#102	Privacy Policy	obligation · platform · needs-counsel	M1 First Cohort
#101	Terms of Service	obligation · platform · needs-counsel	M1 First Cohort
#88	COPPA: consent record storage and audit trail	obligation · platform · needs-counsel	M1 First Cohort
#87	COPPA: verifiable parental consent flow	obligation · parent · needs-counsel	M1 First Cohort

P1 — 43 open

#	Title	Labels	Milestone
#266	Game In Review: jersey-only anonymization for non-subject minors	obligation · platform	M2 Break-even
#257	Coach invite link forces 'create new player' — parents can't attach an existing player to a second coach	driver · parent · invites · feedback	M1 First Cohort
#233	Coach home roadmap — V1 Your bench (epic)	table-stakes · coach	M1 First Cohort
#208	Coach home V1.7: First-day state (V1)	table-stakes · coach	M1 First Cohort
#207	Coach home V1.6: Sent to family	table-stakes · coach	M1 First Cohort
#206	Coach home V1.5: Kids on your bench	table-stakes · coach	M1 First Cohort
#205	Coach home V1.4: Queue rows	table-stakes · coach	M1 First Cohort
#204	Coach home V1.3: Up next card	table-stakes · coach	M1 First Cohort
#203	Coach home V1.2: Impact counts	table-stakes · coach	M1 First Cohort
#201	Coach onboarding console — Phase 3: metrics + bulk actions + polish	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#200	Coach onboarding console — Phase 2: pipeline progress + nudges	table-stakes · coach	M1 First Cohort
#174	Post-payment Stripe redirect lands parents on the old pages.dev origin → logged-out "Invitation only" (VIEWER_SITE_URL not cut over)	table-stakes · payments	M1 First Cohort
#173	Prod clip uploads broke on gamebooth.ca — R2 clips bucket CORS not updated in the domain migration (smoke blind spot)	table-stakes · capture	M1 First Cohort
#171	Coach-page finished-review view renders sub-optimally on iPhone	table-stakes · review · feedback	—
#169	Coach waitlist is write-only — nothing surfaces a /for-coaches signup	driver · coach · invites	M2 Break-even
#158	Guard against deploying prod from a stale main (silent worker-revert class)	table-stakes · platform	M1 First Cohort
#143	Public coach profile page (gamebooth.ca/<coach-handle>) — satisfies Stripe Connect's website requirement and gives coaches a shareable presence	driver · coach · coach-churn · feedback	M2 Break-even
#141	Instrument and test the invite→first-purchase conversion funnel	driver · parent · conversion	M2 Break-even
#119	iOS/iPad device-test pass on the live parent and coach surfaces	table-stakes · platform	M1 First Cohort
#118	Telestrator finger-draw on iPad scrolls the screen / exits fullscreen	table-stakes · review · feedback	M1 First Cohort
#115	Resilient clip uploads — chunked/resumable transfer that survives flaky home networks	table-stakes · capture · feedback	M2 Break-even
#114	Upload accepts non-video files silently — VidSwap/Pixellot ZIP renamed .mp4 played as a black screen for the coach	table-stakes · capture · feedback	M2 Break-even
#104	Confirm agent-of-payee exemption posture with counsel	obligation · payments · needs-counsel	M2 Break-even
#98	No-contact policy between coach and athlete outside the platform	obligation · platform · needs-counsel	M2 Break-even
#97	SafeSport-aligned policy and coach agreement	obligation · coach · needs-counsel	M2 Break-even
#96	Coach background checks (Checkr or Sterling)	obligation · coach	M1 First Cohort
#91	COPPA: separate opt-in for session-follow-up capture	obligation · payments · needs-counsel	M2 Break-even
#90	COPPA: parental access, review and deletion rights	obligation · parent · needs-counsel	M2 Break-even
#84	Automated backups and restore test	table-stakes · platform	M2 Break-even
#82	Admin console	table-stakes · platform	M2 Break-even
#81	Per-review cost instrumentation	driver · platform · infra-cost	M1 First Cohort
#77	SPIKE: will a roster-struggling coach pay 25-30% on a matched player?	driver · matching · matched-premium · spike	M2 Break-even
#76	SPIKE: where does the first unattached parent come from?	driver · matching · matched-premium · spike	M2 Break-even
#71	Refunds, disputes and chargebacks	obligation · payments	M2 Break-even
#70	Pre-authorized standing arrangement for session follow-ups	driver · payments · retention	M2 Break-even
#68	Free-review allowance: first N per coach per month	driver · payments · price	M1 First Cohort
#63	Coach vetting rubric	driver · coach · retention · canvas-blocker	M2 Break-even
#61	Coach earnings transparency: publish net-of-take figures	driver · coach · coach-churn	M1 First Cohort
#59	Coach dashboard: queue, earnings, roster	driver · coach · coach-churn	M2 Break-even
#43	Review quality rubric encoded in the tooling	driver · review · retention · canvas-blocker	M2 Break-even
#40	GameBooth-handled video cutting	driver · review · coach-churn	M2 Break-even
#32	Clip trimming before submission	driver · capture · infra-cost	M2 Break-even
#26	Duplicate athlete record detection and merge	table-stakes · records	M2 Break-even

P2 — 69 open

#	Title	Labels	Milestone
#269	Revisit & streamline the Send to Coach UX (Game In Review)	driver · parent · conversion · feedback	M3 Raise-ready
#264	Game In Review: monetization — subscription (report) + per-clip reviews	driver · payments · retention	M3 Raise-ready
#263	Game In Review: home-surface game grouping (collapsed group card)	table-stakes · platform	M2 Break-even
#262	Game In Review: coach side — grouped bench request + review sent clips	driver · coach · coach-churn	M2 Break-even
#261	Game In Review: confirm + send 1–N clips to a coach	driver · parent · conversion	M2 Break-even
#260	Game In Review: free report — ingest → parse → fact-based candidacy → view	driver · review · frequency	M2 Break-even
#259	Game In Review: verify coded-export shapes (Hudl/Instat variants)	driver · capture · frequency · spike	M2 Break-even
#258	Game In Review: AI-suggested, player-confirmed game review (epic)	driver · review · frequency	M3 Raise-ready
#252	Parent home roadmap — V4 Personal touches (epic)	table-stakes · parent	M2 Break-even
#251	Parent home roadmap — V3 The story, when you look (epic)	table-stakes · parent	M2 Break-even
#250	Parent home roadmap — V2 What they want to see next (epic)	table-stakes · parent	M2 Break-even
#249	Coach AI Assistant (A1–A5) — the supply side for both home roadmaps (epic)	table-stakes · review	M2 Break-even
#248	S1: Next-clip ask — shared coach↔parent loop (epic)	driver · coach	M2 Break-even
#247	Shared services across parent & coach homes — roadmap alignment (index)	table-stakes · platform	M2 Break-even
#246	Harden GET /parents/:id/reviews: allowlist response columns (drop rr.* Stripe/transfer IDs)	table-stakes · parent	—
#243	Goalie coaches may need a distinct Parent User Journey (clip composition), cross-sport	driver · parent · coach-churn · spike, feedback	—
#242	Cap review clip length for goalie coaches (max ~90s)	driver · capture · coach-churn · feedback	—
#236	Coach home roadmap — V4 Families write back (epic)	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#235	Coach home roadmap — V3 Know your kids (epic)	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#234	Coach home roadmap — V2 Momentum (epic)	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#226	Coach home V4.6: First-day state (V4)	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#225	Coach home V4.5: Notes on kid cards + drawer	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#224	Coach home V4.4: New-note notification	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#223	Coach home V4.3: "From the families" panel	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#222	Coach home V4.2: Notes service	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#221	Coach home V4.1: Thank-you note box (parent app)	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#220	Coach home V3.5: First-day state (V3)	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#219	Coach home V3.4: Kid history drawer	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#218	Coach home V3.3: Returning-family context	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#217	Coach home V3.2: Kid cards on the bench	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#216	Coach home V3.1: Per-kid history query	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#215	Coach home V2.7: First-day state (V2)	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#214	Coach home V2.6: "Watched N x" on sent reviews	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#213	Coach home V2.5: Reviews-per-week chart	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#212	Coach home V2.4: Monthly count + avg turnaround	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#211	Coach home V2.3: Weekly streak	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#210	Coach home V2.2: Earnings cell	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#209	Coach home V2.1: Coach stats service	table-stakes · coach	M2 Break-even
#187	Joy reel: note-derived keyword tags + filter/sort	driver · player · frequency · spike, feedback	—
#156	Canadian parents charged in USD when their coach's Stripe account is US-based (cross-border FX friction)	driver · payments · retention · feedback	—
#146	Synthetic prod showcase account with a hard boundary against real data (external-demo surface)	table-stakes · platform	—
#138	Escape/strip user-controlled text in authenticated outbound emails	table-stakes · platform	—
#136	Automated coverage for review-agent voice/conversation behavior (smoke-gate agent revisions)	table-stakes · review	—
#135	Flaky FE test suite under parallel workers — checkout/redirect tests (SendClipToCoach) intermittently fail	table-stakes · platform	—
#133	Deep-dive audit of review-agent behavior and the notes-ownership model	table-stakes · review · spike, feedback	M2 Break-even
#127	Mobile bottom nav drops the Account item on /my-clips	table-stakes · parent	M1 First Cohort
#126	Concierge test — parent sends 2-3 clips, coach picks the teaching moment	driver · review · frequency · spike, feedback	M1 First Cohort
#124	Subscription option instead of pay-per-clip	driver · payments · frequency · feedback	M2 Break-even
#121	Audit Stripe test-mode webhook endpoints	obligation · payments	M2 Break-even
#120	Ship the built management/joy surface (player sharing)	driver · player · retention · needs-counsel	M2 Break-even
#117	UX design review of the coach review studio (with a UX expert)	table-stakes · review · spike, feedback	M2 Break-even
#100	Content moderation on uploaded video	obligation · capture · needs-counsel	M3 Raise-ready
#95	AI training-data consent capture (13+ only)	obligation · platform · needs-counsel	M3 Raise-ready
#94	Biometric data written policy and retention schedule	obligation · platform · needs-counsel	M3 Raise-ready
#93	Biometric consent (BIPA-style) for pose and velocity data	obligation · platform · needs-counsel	M3 Raise-ready
#92	Data retention policy and automated enforcement	obligation · platform · needs-counsel	M3 Raise-ready
#86	Weekly driver export to the operating model	driver · platform · retention	M3 Raise-ready
#75	Concierge matching: first match by hand	driver · matching · matched-premium	M3 Raise-ready
#74	Coach-absorbed billing fallback	driver · payments · price	M3 Raise-ready
#73	Tax reporting for coaches (1099 / T4A)	obligation · payments · needs-counsel	M3 Raise-ready
#69	Source-differentiated take rate	driver · payments · matched-premium	M3 Raise-ready
#64	Coach offboarding and record handling	table-stakes · coach	M3 Raise-ready
#60	Coach-branded low-friction mode	driver · coach · coach-churn	M3 Raise-ready
#55	Parent-facing progress framing (loss-frame, carefully)	driver · parent · retention	M3 Raise-ready
#49	Athlete progress view (player-framed)	driver · player · retention	M3 Raise-ready
#45	Review revision or follow-up question from parent	driver · review · frequency	M3 Raise-ready
#33	Coach in-session capture (the neuro-mirror flow)	driver · capture · invites	M1 First Cohort
#29	Longitudinal progress view across reviews	driver · records · retention	M3 Raise-ready
#27	Athlete record export (portability)	table-stakes · records	M3 Raise-ready

P3 — 27 open

#	Title	Labels	Milestone
#268	Game In Review poster: label the key-moment time to match the thumbnail frame	driver · review · frequency	—
#265	Game In Review: conversion — data-prompt + coach pay-to-reveal nudge	driver · coach · conversion	M3 Raise-ready
#256	Team Plan — sponsored roster video + opt-in Game Report/Film Room + team view [needs scoping]	table-stakes · coach	M3 Raise-ready
#255	Film Room — subscription (Game Report/game + two-way thread + monthly recap) [needs scoping]	table-stakes · parent	M3 Raise-ready
#253	Parent home roadmap — V5 Game week (north star) (epic)	table-stakes · parent	M3 Raise-ready
#239	Coach Home V1 cleanup: dedup + coverage follow-ups	table-stakes · coach	—
#237	Coach home roadmap — V5 Game week (north star) (epic)	table-stakes · coach	M3 Raise-ready
#232	Coach home V5.6: First-day state (V5)	table-stakes · coach	M3 Raise-ready
#231	Coach home V5.5: Focus mode (optional)	table-stakes · coach	M3 Raise-ready
#230	Coach home V5.4: Game context on Up next	table-stakes · coach	M3 Raise-ready
#229	Coach home V5.3: Game week on the bench	table-stakes · coach	M3 Raise-ready
#228	Coach home V5.2: Link each kid to a team	table-stakes · coach	M3 Raise-ready
#227	Coach home V5.1: Schedule & results integration	table-stakes · coach	M3 Raise-ready
#197	/coach/join invite lost if sessionStorage clears mid-OAuth	table-stakes · coach	—
#196	Harden coach-invite redeem edge cases	table-stakes · coach	—
#195	Per-onboarder invite rate-limit / cooldown before widening can_onboard	table-stakes · coach	—
#182	Render the real mark-the-player marker in playback (finish #123; placeholder removed in #181)	table-stakes · player	—
#175	Worker returns synthesized_with_voice as 0/1, not boolean (React {0 && …} footgun)	table-stakes · review	—
#167	Pronunciation row is tight on mobile; 'playing' state is subtle (PlayerForm)	table-stakes · player	—
#166	Drop raw Cartesia error text from the pronunciation-preview 502 body	table-stakes · review	—
#165	Rate-limit the pronunciation preview / suggestion / coach TTS endpoints	table-stakes · review	—
#163	demo-test seeded review doesn't persist coach notes (draft never saves)	table-stakes · review	—
#149	Broadcast/pre-flight agent _api methods don't send EVENT_RELAY_SECRET — 401 after #148 game-endpoint gating	table-stakes · capture	—
#125	Coach "office hours" — group sync Q&A sessions	driver · review · frequency · spike, feedback	—
#122	Checkout-abandon polish follow-ups (grouped)	table-stakes · payments	—
#78	Coach roster-need expression	driver · matching · matched-premium	M3 Raise-ready
#34	Mobile capture from the bench or rinkside	driver · capture · frequency	M2 Break-even

Touch-priority roster as of 2026-10-05. Names appear only for signed-in founders; everyone else sees handles.

Parent	Flags	Coach	Paid/Deliv./Cxl	Last purchase	Last delivery	Last contact
P-2952f6f8	SILENT ONE & DONE CADENCE DUE	C-763bfd8b	1/1/0	2026-08-03	2026-08-04	2026-08-20
P-c2dc0179	SILENT CADENCE DUE	C-763bfd8b	3/3/0	2026-08-07	2026-08-07	2026-09-11
P-494a7944	SILENT CADENCE DUE	C-763bfd8b C-763bfd8b	2/1/1	2026-08-14	2026-08-16	2026-08-20
P-7d3431ec	SILENT ONE & DONE CADENCE DUE	C-763bfd8b	1/1/0	2026-08-12	2026-08-14	2026-08-19
P-f1c95a7d	SILENT ONE & DONE CADENCE DUE	C-763bfd8b	1/1/0	2026-08-13	2026-08-14	2026-08-20
P-4719cb7d	SILENT ONE & DONE CADENCE DUE	C-763bfd8b	1/1/0	2026-08-18	2026-08-19	2026-08-19
P-1840925a	NEW	C-763bfd8b	0/0/0	—	—	never
P-c4005031	NEVER CONTACTED	—	0/0/0	—	—	never
P-64d03653	NEVER CONTACTED	C-763bfd8b	0/0/0	—	—	never

Coaches who opted in via /for-coaches, newest first. Names and emails load only for signed-in founders behind Cloudflare Access.

Name	Email	Referral	Note	Signed up
Loading… (sign in behind Access to view)

Latest: 2026-10-05-digest-006. Names resolve for signed-in founders.

Weekly Digest 006

Built from ops/weekly/2026-09-28.json vs ops/weekly/2026-10-05.json (the two newest dated snapshots — latest.json duplicates 10-05), GitHub issue history for 2026-09-28 → 2026-10-05, and decisions/ entries dated this week (none).

1. Drivers that moved

Diff of the drivers block, 2026-09-28.json → 2026-10-05.json:

| Driver (JSON key) | 09-28 | 10-05 | Change | |---|---|---|---| | reviews_per_active_parent_per_month | 1.333 (n=6, month 2026-08) | 1.333 (n=6, month 2026-08) | none | | parents_invited_per_coach_per_month | 2 (n=3, month 2026-08) | 0.2 (n=5, month 2026-09) | value and denominator both moved | | invite_to_first_purchase_conversion | 6 (n=1, month 2026-08) | 6 (n=1, month 2026-08) | none | | parent_monthly_retention | null (n=0) — in not_tracked | 0 (n=6, month null) — out of not_tracked | first measured value | | coach_monthly_churn | 0 (n=3, month 2026-09) | 0 (n=5, month 2026-10) | value held, denominator moved | | price_per_review.usd | 15.00 (n=8) | 15.00 (n=8) | none |

parent_monthly_retention is measured for the first time — and it's 0%. Last week's not_tracked array dropped parent_monthly_retention; this week's export carries a real value: 0 out of 6 (the single 2026-08 cohort, matching cohorts[0].m1_retained flipping null → 0). Read with caution — n=6 is the entire first cohort, not a sample, and the month field is still null on the driver itself, so the export isn't yet attaching a calendar month to this number. But at face value: zero of the six August parents made a second purchase in month 2. This is the single most important fact in this digest and the first real evidence against the season-one plan's retention assumption (decisions/2026-08-20-season-one-plan.md) — not proof it's wrong, but the first data point that could move it off basis: guess.

parents_invited_per_coach_per_month dropped 2 → 0.2, but the comparison isn't like-for-like. The denominator (n) moved 3 → 5 and the attributed month moved 2026-08 → 2026-09 in the same step — this is last week's flagged anomaly resolving: the two coaches who joined 9/24 and 9/25 (C-0ee6e9cc, C-57259821) have now rolled into the per-coach invite calculation, each sending 0 invites in their first partial month, which drags the per-coach average down. volume.new_parents_in_period moving 0 → 1 (one new coach_brought parent, P-1840925a, joined 2026-10-01 under C-763bfd8b) confirms real invite activity happened — C-763bfd8b's invites_sent_in_period went 0 → 1 between the two snapshots. Reading the raw 2 → 0.2 drop as "invites collapsed" would overstate it; it's mostly a denominator effect from onboarding two new, as-yet-inactive coaches.

coach_monthly_churn — same resolution. Value holds at 0, but n moved 3 → 5 and month moved 2026-09 → 2026-10, confirming the two new coaches are now inside this driver's rolling window too.

Coach-disappearance anomaly (digest 003 §1, digest 004 §1, digest 005 §1) — still unresolved, not worsened. C-0f4b1805 remains absent from coaches/parents/roster in 2026-10-05.json. No new contact_evidence or decisions/ entry explains it. Still an open question for the export owner, not this digest to resolve.

Guess-basis baseline — now 6 weeks unowned. Confirmed against model/assumptions.yaml: coach_monthly_churn, parents_invited_per_coach_per_month, invite_to_first_purchase_conversion, parent_monthly_retention, and reviews_per_active_parent_per_month are all still basis: guess with no owner: field anywhere in the file. Digest 002 (2026-08-24) started this clock; it is now 6 calendar weeks (08-24 → 10-05) with no movement toward measured or actual on any of the five — even though parent_monthly_retention now has its first real data point, the assumptions file itself hasn't been updated to reflect it.

2. Evidence logged

contact_evidence rows in 2026-10-05.json are identical to 2026-09-28.json — zero new rows this week. No parent or coach touch was logged to the contact store between the two snapshots.

3. Backlog shipped and started

Issue history for 2026-09-28 → 2026-10-05 (GitHub search on closed/created, boundary issues #247–#253 excluded — they were created 2026-09-28 before 09:00 UTC and already counted in digest 005).

Shipped (closed this week): none. Zero issues closed in this window — a contrast with last week's 3 closes.

Started (opened this week): 14 issues, driven mostly by a "Game In Review" epic breakdown, not organic backlog discovery from the beta:

| # | Title | Track / driver | |---|---|---| | 255 | Film Room — subscription (Game Report/game + two-way thread + monthly recap) | track:table-stakes, P3, surface:parent | | 256 | Team Plan — sponsored roster video + opt-in Game Report/Film Room + team view | track:table-stakes, P3, surface:coach | | 257 | Coach invite link forces 'create new player' — can't attach existing player to a 2nd coach | track:driver, driver:invites, P1, surface:parent, feedback | | 258 | Game In Review: AI-suggested, player-confirmed game review (epic) | track:driver, driver:frequency, P2, surface:review | | 259 | Game In Review: verify coded-export shapes (Hudl/Instat variants) | track:driver, driver:frequency, P2, surface:capture, spike | | 260 | Game In Review: free report — ingest → parse → candidacy → view | track:driver, driver:frequency, P2, surface:review | | 261 | Game In Review: confirm + send 1–N clips to a coach | track:driver, driver:conversion, P2, surface:parent | | 262 | Game In Review: coach side — grouped bench request + review sent clips | track:driver, driver:coach-churn, P2, surface:coach | | 263 | Game In Review: home-surface game grouping (collapsed group card) | track:table-stakes, P2, surface:platform | | 264 | Game In Review: monetization — subscription (report) + per-clip reviews | track:driver, driver:retention, P2, surface:payments | | 265 | Game In Review: conversion — data-prompt + coach pay-to-reveal nudge | track:driver, driver:conversion, P3, surface:coach | | 266 | Game In Review: jersey-only anonymization for non-subject minors | track:obligation, P1, surface:platform | | 268 | Game In Review poster: label the key-moment time to match the thumbnail frame | track:driver, driver:frequency, P3, surface:review | | 269 | Revisit & streamline the Send to Coach UX (Game In Review) | track:driver, driver:conversion, P2, surface:parent, feedback |

By track: 10 track:driver (all 10 carry a driver:x tag — no hygiene gap this week, unlike digest 005's #248), 3 track:table-stakes, 1 track:obligation.

Two items (#257, #269) carry the feedback flag — genuinely beta-sourced, not roadmap decomposition. #266 is worth flagging on its own: it's a track:obligation/P1 item about jersey-only anonymization for non-subject minors in Game In Review footage — squarely a Tier-1 minors-data concern (.claude/rules/pii-boundary.md territory, applied to product surface rather than this repo) and worth tracking to close given the PII boundary this repo already holds itself to.

4. Decisions needed

No decisions/ entries dated this week (newest are still 2026-09-09). Carrying forward digest 005's list unchanged, with elapsed weeks updated:

Price-per-review derivation unconfirmed (decisions/2026-08-19-price-per-review.md) — carried, 6 weeks. Matt still needs to confirm or complete the $120/hr → $15 derivation.
Season-one plan adopted without Alex, Danny, or Derek (decisions/2026-08-20-season-one-plan.md) — carried, 6 weeks. The free-allowance removal and $20 September default still need those three conversations — now with a first (grim) retention data point on the table.
Market analysis + seasonality layer (decisions/2026-08-20-market-analysis-and-seasonality.md) — carried, 6 weeks. Still flagged for Alex's review at onboarding, still unreviewed.
Startup capital exclusion (decisions/2026-08-20-startup-capital-excluded-from-operating-model.md) — carried, 6 weeks. Reversal condition is explicitly Alex's to invoke as CFO; still open.
Residual Tier-1 confirmation on incorporation (decisions/2026-09-09-incorporation-in-place-no-coach-reonboard.md) — carried, 3 weeks. Still need Stripe/counsel confirmation that the sole-prop → incorporated swap doesn't trigger a platform re-KYC that pauses payouts, and still need to resolve the jurisdiction conflict the decision file itself flags (Delaware C-corp vs. Ontario / GameBooth Inc. appear in different places in the repo).

Five open decisions, four of them now 6 weeks unmoved — still worth a standing agenda item, as digests 002 through 005 have all already said.

5. Touch points this week

From the roster block (2026-10-05.json) — same 6 SILENT parents as digest 005, plus one new arrival (P-1840925a, joined 2026-10-01, NEW) and the same 2 NEVER_CONTACTED parents. Ordering by primary_flag (SILENT, ONE_AND_DONE, NEW, NEVER_CONTACTED, CADENCE_DUE), the 6 SILENT parents alone fill the cap — 3 cut (1 NEW, 2 NEVER_CONTACTED).

| Handle | Why (primary_flag) | Owner | Suggested opener | |---|---|---|---| | P-2952f6f8 | SILENT | Alex | Last purchase 8/3, one delivered review 8/4, last touched 8/20 — now 62 days since purchase with nothing since. | | P-c2dc0179 | SILENT | Alex | Most active parent on record — 3 paid, 3 delivered, all by 8/7 — contacted 9/11, now also CADENCE_DUE at 58 days since purchase. Worth asking directly what that call turned up. | | P-494a7944 | SILENT | Alex | 2 paid, 1 cancelled, last delivery 8/16, last touched 8/20 — now 51 days since purchase, still no follow-up; the cancellation plus continued silence is worth a direct check-in. | | P-7d3431ec | SILENT | Alex | One delivered review 8/14, last touched 8/19 — now 53 days since purchase, no repeat purchase since. | | P-f1c95a7d | SILENT | Alex | One delivered review 8/14, last touched 8/20 — now 52 days since purchase, no repeat purchase since. | | P-4719cb7d | SILENT | Alex | One delivered review 8/19, last touched 8/19 — now 48 days since purchase, no repeat purchase since; earliest-joined (8/18) of this cohort. |

Follow-through on digest 005's touch list (6 handles): zero contact_evidence rows were logged at all this week (section 2), so none of the six were followed up on.

P-2952f6f8 — no new contact since 8/20. Fourth week running with no follow-up.
P-c2dc0179 — no new contact since 9/11. Third week running.
P-494a7944 — no new contact since 8/20. Fourth week running.
P-7d3431ec — no new contact since 8/19. Fourth week running.
P-f1c95a7d — no new contact since 8/20. Fourth week running.
P-4719cb7d — no new contact since 8/19. Fourth week running.

Net: zero of the six were followed up on this week — the fourth week running for five of the six, the third for P-c2dc0179. This is past the three-weeks-running threshold digest 005 already named directly; stating it again plainly rather than softening it: this touch list has now gone an entire month with no action against five of its six names, during the same week the export produced its first measured retention number and that number was 0%.

6. Mid-week pulse

No pulse entries this week.

Archive (4)

2026-09-28-digest-005.md
2026-09-21-digest-004.md
2026-09-14-digest-003.md
2026-08-24-digest-002.md

Asset A · owner both CEOs · reviewed quarterly · canonical in-repo since 2026-08-19 (edit model/canvas.yaml, never this page) · Stress-tested draft. Tensions are left visible by design.

The spine — two moats with opposite timing

GameBooth has two moats with opposite timing. The wedge (frictionless async-review tooling) gets coaches in the door but is replicable by a flat-fee SaaS competitor. The wall (matching unattached parent demand to coaches) cannot be replicated by any tooling competitor — but it is structurally absent during bootstrap, because Tier 1 coaches arrive with their own rosters and need no matching.

Everything below is an attempt to survive the danger window — the period where you are Tier-1-only, matching isn't live, and the only thing you offer is a tool a third party could clone. The business is durable if and only if it reaches liquidity (matching switched on) before that window closes.

Phase	Matching live?	Take rate	What take rate IS in this phase
Bootstrap	no	Flat 20%	Not a margin to protect. Take rate held flat; frequency comes from the product being genuinely more profitable per hour and ~12x higher throughput, not from a price bribe.
Post-liquidity	yes	20% base / 25–30% on platform-matched	A finder's premium on demand GameBooth manufactured. Blended take RISES as matched share grows. Take-rate expansion = proof the moat switched on.

MODEL CORRECTION The bootstrap break-even is understated by roughly 4x. The 37-review figure counts $4.00 of take against $148 of cost. Absorbing Stripe (2.9% + $0.30) and ~$0.75 infra makes contribution $2.37 not $4.00; against an honest $250/mo fixed base and the free-review allowance, break-even is ~145 total reviews/month, about 7.8 active coaches. (Superseded again at the $15 price by the in-repo model: ~242 total reviews, ~13 coaches — see the Model tab.)

MODEL CORRECTION The "~2x effective rate" compares GROSS async to NET sync. Net of the 20% take a coach banks $192/effective-hour vs $120 — 1.6x, not 2x. The ~12x throughput claim is correct and was always the stronger argument. Correct the coach pitch before a coach does the arithmetic in front of you.

REJECTED DECISION A volume/frequency discount was explicitly REJECTED from the default plan: it lowers take exactly as a coach grows, trains the highest-GMV coaches to expect a falling rate, and rewards the least-locked-in cohort. Held in reserve only as a stall-breaker if frequency collapses.

The nine blocks

Key Partners

Coaches (supply) — the binding constraint on the whole business. Not a vendor: the scarce input.
Stripe Connect (Express, agent-of-payee posture, separate charges/transfers).
Infra: Cloudflare (Workers/D1/R2), LiveKit.
AI/voice: Cartesia (TTS), Deepgram/Gemini (STT). Voice clone is a commodity API call — explicitly NOT a moat.
Trust & Safety vendors: Checkr/Sterling, SafeSport framework.
Outside legal counsel — THREE distinct consent items tracked separately: (i) pre-authorized session-follow-up capture/billing; (ii) COPPA training-data consent (13+ scope, banked early); (iii) biometric consent (BIPA-style, age-independent).

Key Activities

Ranked by strategic load.

1. Manufacturing unattached parent demand (so matching has fuel) — the activity that switches the moat on. Least-built, most important.
2. Matching players to coaches by need — the wall.
3. Two capture modes: parent-uploads-footage → async review; coach-captures-in-session → next-day neuro-mirror follow-up (the physical→digital bridge; fastest path to T1 density + record population).
4. Async-review + AI-coaching-notes tooling — the wedge. Treat as acquisition, not moat; absorbed via the two-mode architecture rather than ceded.
5. CV/AI augmentation flywheel — augment the coach, never replace. Pose estimation + velocity trends, longitudinal via kid_id. Trains on 13+ only; needs its own biometric consent.
6. Provenance instrumentation (origin-stamping) — makes the revenue model and two-mode architecture enforceable.
7. Trust & Safety / coach vetting — table stakes given minors; where the anti-toxicity promise must be operationalized.

Key Resources

ASSEMBLED BY THE PORT The source doc has no Key Resources section; these are its own statements about substrate and scarce inputs, gathered from §1, §6 and §7 for the canvas grid. Review and edit like any other block.

The kid_id athlete record — the SUBSTRATE everything runs on (explicitly not a moat: portable by design; the rails, not the train).
Coach supply — the scarce input and binding constraint.
Provenance (immutable origin) — what makes premium pricing enforceable.
The expert-annotated video corpus (future, 13+ only) — the only asset that compounds with scale, if deliberately built.

Value Propositions

Full detail in Asset B (the Value Prop tab).

To coaches: leverage now → demand later. Async wins on effective hourly earnings AND ~12x calendar throughput; GameBooth absorbs the video-cutting/prep sync forces on the coach. Post-liquidity: players they cannot source themselves.
To parents: a coached, annotated clip of their child, plus a continuous athlete record. Sold as edge; intended to retain on reassurance/development.
To players: a record that travels with them across teams and seasons.

MODEL CORRECTION Honest coach numbers: $192/effective-hour net (1.6x sync) and 12x throughput. Lead with throughput.

Customer Relationships

The central question: does GameBooth OWN the relationship, or merely HOST it? Hosted relationships disintermediate; owned ones don't.

Tier 1 (coach-owned, hosted): fragile. Mitigation is SPEED TO LIQUIDITY, not retention mechanics. Accept some anchor coaches may leave once they've lent credibility — treat as a paid marketing channel if they do.
Tier 2 (platform-owned): durable. The coach cannot operate without the player flow GameBooth provides.
Parents: today bonded to the COACH (they buy edge). Long-run intent: bond them to the SYSTEM (record, progress continuity) so retention survives a coach's departure. Weakest of the lock-in mechanisms — acknowledged.

Channels

Bootstrap: Tier 1 coaches as distribution — their existing clients are the first parents. Coach credibility IS the channel.
Organic: parent-to-parent loop (unproven).
Post-liquidity: GameBooth's own matching surface becomes a channel TO coaches (delivering players) — the channel that creates the wall.

ASSUMPTION That unattached parent demand will materialise to FUEL matching. Every bootstrap parent arrives attached to a coach. Where the first unattached parent comes from is the single biggest open question in the model.

Customer Segments

Three parties, distinct roles. Do not collapse them.

Players — the protagonist, never a customer. Data subject only. The kid_id athlete record is the SUBSTRATE the business runs on — necessary rails, not a moat. Never an account holder, never a payer.
Parents — the buyer. Account holder, payer, consent-giver (COPPA). What they BUY today is competitive edge; what GameBooth INTENDS to sell is reassurance + development. That gap is a strategic problem, not a copy problem (see Asset B).
Coaches Tier 1 — roster-bringers. Arrive with their own players; relationship is coach-owned. Most important to credibility, least defensible. The bootstrap cohort and the disintermediation risk.
Coaches Tier 2 — player-receivers. GameBooth matches players to them; relationship is platform-created. This is where the wall exists. Only possible once liquidity exists.

Cost Structure

Two engineering cost profiles — do not conflate: product-eng (founder-absorbed pre-PMF) vs sustaining-eng (volume-driven). The step-change in burn is at the Phase 1→2 boundary.
Coach-leveraged model: $1M net revenue does not require a large team. The constraint is coach supply, never headcount efficiency.
Platform absorbs Stripe processing fees so coach net is a clean 80% (on billable reviews).

MODEL CORRECTION The ~90% contribution margin is a distant ceiling, not a near-term fact: contribution today is ~59% of take / ~12% of GMV at a $20 ticket, and Stripe's $0.30 fixed fee is regressive — the strongest argument for bundling. "Clean 80%" is billable-only; blended payout runs 83–91% of GMV across the first 18 months.

Revenue Streams

Three streams, distinct by who initiates and who pays. Merchant of record stays consistent: separate charges and transfers, agent-of-payee posture.

(i) Parent-initiated async reviews — platform fee per review; GameBooth holds the full fee, pays the coach 80% on delivery. Bootstrap flat 20%; post-liquidity 20% coach_invited / 25–30% platform_matched. Blended take is an OUTPUT of sourcing mix, not an input.
(ii) Session-follow-up reviews (coach-captured neuro-mirror) — a sequence: free first clip (CAC) → pre-authorized standing arrangement (primary; parents resent a clip that APPEARED, not one they AUTHORIZED) → coach-absorbed fallback (coach bundles into in-person price, pays the fee from margin).
(iii) Future: matched-player premium — the 25–30%. Distinct because the revenue RISES as the moat switches on.
Coach to Own: the first N reviews per coach each month carry no platform fee (free at the BOTTOM, monthly reset — explicitly NOT a cap; free-at-the-top asymptotes take to zero on the best coaches. Free-at-the-bottom is acquisition; free-at-the-top is suicide).
One platform, two modes, one record (the anti-CoachClip judo): a marketplace mode and a low-friction coach-branded mode that FEELS standalone — both writing to the same kid_id record. The low-friction mode is the acquisition channel for the record, not a separate revenue line.

MODEL CORRECTION The allowance is not free to you: at 3/coach/month it removes 54% of billable volume in month 1 and ~16% at steady state, while Stripe and infra are still paid on every free review. Budget it.

BLOCKER Load-bearing twice: source-differentiated pricing AND the two-mode architecture both require kid_id to carry an immutable, system-assigned origin field, stamped server-side at creation on EVERY creation path. Coaches will attempt to claim matched players as their own — expected. Self-reported provenance is dead on arrival. [SHIPPED: origin is live, trigger-enforced, in prod.]

FOR COUNSEL The pre-authorized arrangement is standing authorization for ongoing third-party capture and processing of a minor's video, not just a Stripe mandate. Counsel question: one consent or two, and does the 2025 amendments' separate-opt-in logic apply?

The defensibility verdict

Genuinely defensible

Matching (the wall) — no tooling competitor can replicate it; it requires a demand side.
The take-rate structure taxing manufactured demand at a premium, enforced by immutable provenance.
The coach-supply constraint cutting FOR you once you have density.
The switching CLIFF — real today, even on Tier 1 (see below).
(Long-run, optional) the data flywheel — expert-annotated sports video collected as a paid byproduct. The only asset that compounds with scale. NOT built; a deliberate future choice. 13+ only.

NOT a moat — stop describing it as one

The voice clone (commodity API).
The async tooling on its own (replicable flat-fee SaaS; it's a wedge).
Tier 1 relationships (coach-owned).
The kid_id record itself — substrate, not moat. Portability and lock-in are contradictory; what's defensible is what runs ON the record.

The switching cliff

A coach who leaves to dodge the 20% take returns to doing their own video cutting and prep — falling from $192 to $120 per effective hour: a 37% drop to avoid a 20% fee. A genuine anti-disintermediation force that operates today, in bootstrap, without matching.

MODEL CORRECTION Original claim (~50% drop) compared gross async to net sync; honest figure is 37%. A claim that survives arithmetic is worth more than a bigger one that doesn't.

A cliff, not a wall: it only protects against the coach going fully manual. A flat-fee competitor offering the same prep-elimination at $40/mo neutralises it entirely. The wall is still matching.

Data governance

Serve all ages, train on 13+ only. Converts the COPPA training-data question from existential risk into a bounded segmentation decision, and doubles as a brand asset ("we don't train AI on little kids' video"). Biometric (BIPA-style) consent is a SEPARATE door with no age cutoff — the 13+ segmentation does not close it.

The bet, in one sentence

GameBooth wins if it converts coach-owned Tier 1 relationships into platform-owned Tier 2 liquidity — manufacturing unattached parent demand and stamping provenance — BEFORE a flat-fee tooling competitor or a defecting anchor coach exploits the defenceless bootstrap window.

Validate next, in order

Where does the first UNATTACHED parent come from? (Fuels matching; currently unanswered.)
Do parents value the artifact/record over the human coach? (Watch/rewatch instrumentation is the first proxy.)
Will a roster-struggling coach gladly pay 25–30% on a matched player?

Asset B · owner both CEOs · reviewed quarterly · canonical in-repo since 2026-08-19 (edit model/cvp.yaml, never this page) · Stress-tested draft. Tensions are left visible by design.

Coach value proposition — wedge and wall

Customer profile

Jobs

Generate income from coaching (primary job is on-ice/field; review is secondary income).
Service more players per available hour.
Build a roster of GOOD players (hard; high-value if solved).
Maintain reputation/results with existing clients.

Pains

Sync review is time-expensive: ≥30 min prep + 30 min call = ≥60 min per session, often more when video isn't pre-cut.
Sync forces a direct cost: unpaid prep time OR paying for editing tools out of the session fee.
Effective hourly earnings capped at the nominal rate — prep time is unpaid drag.
Roster-building is slow and uncertain.
Income capped by hours physically available.

Gains

More coaching outcomes per hour.
Higher EFFECTIVE earnings per hour worked, not just more volume.
Flexibility around a primary job.
Access to players they couldn't otherwise reach.

Value map

Pain relievers (the WEDGE — replicable)

Async review: ≤5 min of work per clip, priced off hourly rate. ~12x calendar throughput (twelve clips vs one session per hour).
AI-assisted notes + GameBooth-handled video cutting remove the prep burden entirely — eliminating a cost line the coach carries under sync.
GameBooth handles payment and (post-liquidity) matching.

Gain creators (the WALL — not replicable)

Matching delivers players the coach cannot source — the durable gain, and the one a flat-fee competitor structurally cannot offer.

The pain relievers are the WEDGE (replicable). The matching gain creator is the WALL (not replicable). A coach's dependency grows only as they consume matched players — which is why pricing taxes growth (matched), not base.

MODEL CORRECTION The rate claim compared gross async to net sync; like-for-like is $192/effective-hour, 1.6x. Publish the net number — a coach who finds the discrepancy discounts everything else. The ~12x throughput claim holds completely and is the stronger argument: a coach's binding constraint is calendar hours, not rate. Lead with throughput, support with rate.

The jobs grid

The Jobs Grid — the purchase trigger and the retention driver are different jobs held by different people

	Functional	Social	Emotional
Player (user)	Close the specific skill gap	Not be the weak link in front of teammates/coach	Protect love of the game from toxic, politically-driven team-coach culture (the founding insight) ● dominant
Parent (buyer)	Close the gap that's putting the kid in the bottom half of the roster	Keep up with the families who already pay for private coaching (positional / arms-race)	Manage the recurring dread of relegation — "don't let my kid be the bubble kid" ● dominant

The parent's loss-aversion job is the most durable in the model: (1) it never self-extinguishes — relegation dread is structurally renewed every season/coach-change by the league's own mechanics; (2) it's loss-framed, therefore price-insensitive (prospect theory); (3) the cohort self-selects for the economics — bubble-anxious AAA/AA parents pay repeatedly.

The player's dominant job = protected joy. A GameBooth review is NOT a fault-finding takedown — it spotlights the kid and teaches when they want/need it, routing AROUND the toxic culture rather than adding to it.

The split-frame architecture — the core design constraint

The two dominant jobs point in opposite directions: the parent's job is to monetise relegation dread; the player's job is to escape the anxiety machine that creates that dread. Collapsing them recreates the toxic coach and triggers the one churn event GameBooth cannot survive: kid quits → parent churns regardless of coach quality.

Parent buys on loss-aversion (the purchase trigger). The league supplies the dread — never market it directly.
Player experiences encouragement + targeted teaching (the retention mechanism). The kid never feels the relegation pressure.
The product's core job is the TRANSLATION between these frames.

DESIGN BLOCKER The parent's view and the player's view of a review may need to diverge. If the kid reads the parent's relegation anxiety in the product, GameBooth has rebuilt the toxic coach. [DECIDED & BUILT: views diverge — the joy surface is the player-facing encouragement view, age-gated; see tracker #46.]

SUPPLY-QUALITY BLOCKER The player's emotional job is a promise about COACH BEHAVIOUR — the part GameBooth controls least. The anti-toxicity promise must be encoded into vetting, guidelines, and the review tooling (structural nudges toward encouragement over comprehensive fault-finding), or it is a value betrayed at scale. [OPEN: rubric-in-tooling is tracker #43; guidelines acceptance shipped.]

MODEL NOTE Both blockers map to Parent monthly retention — the single highest-leverage unknown in the financial model. These are not soft brand concerns; they sit directly on the number the business is most sensitive to.

Parent and player — pains, gains, relievers

Parent (buyer)

Pains

Recurring, league-manufactured dread of the kid being cut/relegated.
Can't coach the gap themselves; the team coach may be the SOURCE of the problem.
No continuity of record as the kid moves across teams/seasons/coaches.

Gains

The kid stays off the bubble.
A trusted coach outside the team's politics.
A record that follows the player through the yearly roster churn.

Player (user)

Pains

Being judged/nitpicked by a politically-motivated team coach.
Losing love of the game.

Gains

Encouragement and targeted teaching when wanted.
A coach who is on THEIR side, outside team politics.

Relievers / creators

Coached, annotated clip (parent-frame: gap-closing; player-frame: encouragement).
Coach outside the team's political structure.
The athlete record (kid_id) — continuity that survives the exact churn the league forces.

GameBooth has been selling the GAIN frame ("competitive edge"). The durable, price-insensitive job is the LOSS frame ("don't get cut") for the buyer, delivered as PROTECTED JOY for the user. Go-to-market language and the dual-surface design should reflect the split.

ASSUMPTION Still untested, still highest-priority: that parents value the produced artifact + record over the raw relationship with the human coach. If false, the coach can always take the parent off-platform. Watch/rewatch instrumentation is the first behavioural evidence.

The session-follow-up VP (coach-captured "neuro-mirror")

Not "do more async volume" but "extend and differentiate my in-person offering." The neuro-mirror clip makes the coach's in-person hour worth more and last longer (the kid re-watches; learning consolidates). A retention hook that does NOT depend on matching.

Natively split-frame-compliant: a neuro-mirror of a skills rep is inherently encouraging ("here's your good rep, here's how to make it cleaner") — possibly the cleanest expression of the anti-toxicity brand.

The fastest real-world path to T1 density and record population: a coach's existing in-person roster converts to platform-active kid_id records in one motion. Accepted risk: produces only coach_invited players — fuels the wedge, may starve the wall.

Who hears which frame

Who hears which frame — the thing most likely to be got wrong under time pressure

Audience	Lead with	Never lead with
Parents (customers)	Protected joy, a coach on your kid's side, a record that follows them	Relegation dread. It works, and using it makes you part of the machine you position against.
Players (users)	Encouragement, targeted teaching, seeing yourself improve	Anything that leaks the parent's anxiety
Coaches (supply)	~12x throughput, prep eliminated, then 1.6x net rate	The 2x figure. It does not survive arithmetic.
Investors	The loss frame, explicitly — it is why this is repeat-purchase and price-insensitive	The gain frame. "Helps kids improve" does not explain why demand renews every season.

The investor and customer frames are deliberately opposite. Naming that split openly in a pitch is a strength: it demonstrates you understand your own demand engine well enough to know why you do not point it at your customers.

Model math in model/model.py (regression-tested against the retired sheet); measured overlays from ops/weekly/*.json under the n≥5 floor. Founders only — served behind Cloudflare Access.

GameBooth — Operating System

How this model changes

Drivers & assumptions — the honesty column

Sensitivity — plausible ranges (never ±% flexing) i

What-if — steady state, live

Driver trends — weekly snapshots

18-month projection

Measured vs. plan vs. needed

Month-by-month detail — measured today

Market & penetration

Unit economics — per review

Raise gates

P0 — 5 open

P1 — 43 open

P2 — 69 open

P3 — 27 open

Weekly Digest 006

1. Drivers that moved

2. Evidence logged

3. Backlog shipped and started

4. Decisions needed

5. Touch points this week

6. Mid-week pulse

The spine — two moats with opposite timing

The nine blocks

Key Partners

Key Activities

Key Resources

Value Propositions

Customer Relationships

Channels

Customer Segments

Cost Structure

Revenue Streams

The defensibility verdict

Genuinely defensible

NOT a moat — stop describing it as one

The switching cliff

Data governance

The bet, in one sentence

Validate next, in order

Coach value proposition — wedge and wall

Customer profile

Jobs

Pains

Gains

Value map

Pain relievers (the WEDGE — replicable)

Gain creators (the WALL — not replicable)

The jobs grid

The split-frame architecture — the core design constraint

Parent and player — pains, gains, relievers

Parent (buyer)

Pains

Gains

Player (user)

Pains

Gains

Relievers / creators

The session-follow-up VP (coach-captured "neuro-mirror")

Who hears which frame

Sensitivity — plausible ranges (never ±% flexing)